In 2019 (that's 9 years away) China's GDP will equal the US GDP. In  2025 (15 years) China will have double the GDP. Right behind China, Brazil, Russia and India are catching up fast. Aside from the obvious cerebral hemorage that the end of "American Exceptionalism" from any quarter will cause the christianist plurality - godless red Chinese communist will rule our globe by 2050. The mandate of heaven is soon restored to the Middle Kingdom which for 4 millennial has considered itself "the people of the earth".


I for one welcome our Materialist overlords and my question is this: When will Dixieland succeed? Will Manhattan still be cooler than Shanghai? Also, how does the treatment of Chinese poet Liu Xiaobo, viciously oppressed by the totalitarian Chinese regime different from Julian Assange, the nihilist enemy of democracy. How are the two stories precisely identical? Feel free to dispute either/both statements. Note that I support American civil rights in America AND feel a disturbance in the force regarding incarcerated poets and Jedi knights.


BTW - currently reading "When China Rules the World"  (good, used copy from Amazon, plenty still available online)


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Or you could read the book.

Short answer - even my Mayan calendar says its the 21st century and the pony express is not very fast. It's the technology.


The gist of the WCRW model is that only Japan of all the Far East began industrialization in the 19th century while China remained closed to modernity and the industrial revolution. Until Mao's death in 1976 the country had advanced to year on year subsistence for the proletariat. Then unlike Russia who took economic chemotherapy that collapsed society in 1990's, China began to dismantle the state economy in a rational fashion. The states %GDP has shrunken dramatically in the last two decades. Do you think the present government and citizenry of this exceptional America can come close to that?


Also the growth curve for China's economy which cannot be captured in these exhibits above is astounding. They are doubling at a phenomenal rate and the US has only slow relative growth.


The last point is my original question - the middle kingdom is rational, materialist, agnostic and athiest. In a foot race who wins China or the US. My 5 euros is bet on the PRC.

No One can accurately predict the future ... it's all speculation.  More likely, another conflict in Asia will upset all current predictions of (financial) productivity.  Noted: It's all relative.  The effect on thee and me is ... ?


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