California Prop. 8 and DoMA have found their way before the Supreme Court of the United States. Seems like they'd rather avoid making a ruling altogether at the moment.

I've been gleaming bits and pieces of comments from the justices, but I am not entirely certain how they fit together yet. Some of the random quotes in the news are head scratchers. 

But [Justice Kennedy] also said he feared the court would enter "uncharted waters".

"We have five years of information to pose against 2,000 years of history or more," he said.

There is just too much wrong with that statement.

Personally, I think if a ruling comes, it will just tip in favour of same-sex marriage proponents, though it's a bit tricky. It concerns constitutionality and the impact of state's rights, as well as the direct impacts on Californians and the specific Proposition under review.

So, views? Predictions? Insight?

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A prediction on msnbc 6-3 or as much as 7-2. I find 7-2 hard to believe.

I can't offer much in the way of a prediction because I don't really know anything about the individual justices, but I will be incredibly disappointed if they don't use this opportunity to take a stand and finally let our political system do something positive for the country.  It is a long overdue change and if it does not pass I will likely end up on a rant that finally outs me as an atheist to everyone that isn't close to me.  Perhaps that is also overdue, but either way I hope they grow a pair and do the right thing.

I've been trying to sort that out myself in terms of the individual justices as there are only a couple whose views I know. Knowing their views and how they will vote aren't always the same things though.

I'm sifting through the highlights provided by the Wall Street Journal at the moment to try and figure it out:

I agree that the issue is overdue, but from the perspective of the court, it may seem that it is too soon.

I am very nervous about the ramifications of an anti-marriage ruling. I'm not letting myself think about it for very long though because this week is already highly stressful for me due to happenings in my personal life.

I think they will kick it back to the lower court.

I've seen this idea floating around a lot and it would absolutely piss me off.  On such a divisive issue they can't take a back seat approach and just let it play out in a state by state fashion.  It would be like telling the states to set their own segregation laws back in the 50's. 

+1, let's play kick the can on down the road....

You may be right, since they might decide the litigators don't have the standing to be before them. 

Also, I'm a little concerned that some of the justices are deviating from purely legal issues and talking about social issues. The Supreme Court is unique in that it should only be ruling on constitutional matters, not what the effect of their decision might be.

I have a feeling they will throw it out and let the lower courts deal with it

Prediction on Prop 8:  The SCOTUS lets the lower court ruling stand and marriage equality is finally recognized as a right granted to anyone under the California state constitution. 

Prediction on DOMA: The SCOTUS throws out definition of marriage included within DOMA and requires the federal government to recognize the marital status of married couples who hail from marriage equality states. But the SCOTUS still allows each state to make up its own definition of marriage.

The marriage equality states should take full advantage of the latter ruling and put Republican marriage to a popular vote. Once the court says it's perfectly fair for eight wolves and two sheep to vote on what to have for dinner, then why the fuck not?

The news was making it out as if Kennedy and possibly Sotomayor would prefer to steer clear of Prop 8. I'm not entirely unsympathetic if that is the case -- I understand that effecting change in this manner is problematic --, though ultimately I think it's the wrong call.

DoMA is a different matter. Section three has to go, but I'm not entirely clear if section two is even on the table.

2013 and human beings are still being denied their civil rights.


As is the supreme court.



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