U.S. Supreme Court Same-Sex Marriage: Bets?

California Prop. 8 and DoMA have found their way before the Supreme Court of the United States. Seems like they'd rather avoid making a ruling altogether at the moment.

I've been gleaming bits and pieces of comments from the justices, but I am not entirely certain how they fit together yet. Some of the random quotes in the news are head scratchers.

But [Justice Kennedy] also said he feared the court would enter "uncharted waters".

"We have five years of information to pose against 2,000 years of history or more," he said.
[source]

There is just too much wrong with that statement.

Personally, I think if a ruling comes, it will just tip in favour of same-sex marriage proponents, though it's a bit tricky. It concerns constitutionality and the impact of state's rights, as well as the direct impacts on Californians and the specific Proposition under review.

So, views? Predictions? Insight?

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Permalink Reply by Unseen on March 27, 2013 at 12:46pm

I, too, wonder if the GOP can rid itself of the crazies, ignorami, and fascists in time to have a chance of winning the Presidency back in 2016.

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Permalink Reply by M.M. on March 27, 2013 at 2:23pm

The elderly more often than not vote to preserve the status quo.

And they vote in huge numbers.

If you cant vote until 18 maybe there should be a cut off age as well.

If you are not likely to survive into the next decade you cant vote?

Just a thought.

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Permalink Reply by Unseen on March 27, 2013 at 2:55pm

You are presuming that the status quo is necessarily wrong. The status quo isn't just one thing. Allowing people who have some experience under their belts to vote hardly seems like a bad thing. The older voter will be more think about the unintended consequences of precipitous changes in the law than the young. But the young need to be there to challenge the old with new ideas.

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Permalink Reply by M.M. on March 28, 2013 at 12:27pm

Shameful as it is my grandmother, in her 70's, refused to vote for Obama for one reason only. Because he is not white.

That is why I bring up the age issue. Prejudice can be a hard thing to overcome and the elderly are least susceptible to change.

If one is too elderly and in firmed to operate a motor vehicle maybe they should not be allowed to vote as well?

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Permalink Reply by Unseen on March 28, 2013 at 12:47pm

Since the young are more likely to join some wacko anarchist or terrorist group than an oldster, at what age should we allow the young to vote?

Permalink Reply by Dale Headley on March 27, 2013 at 7:23pm

In the case of Proposition 8, I think the justices will vote 6-3 (with Roberts joining the liberals) to dismiss the case on the basis of the plaintiffs lack of standing. That will, in effect, void California's law, but not apply to any other state.

In the case of DOMA, I predict a 5-4 decision declaring it unconstitutional on the basis of it violating the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment. That will affect every state; however, as in the case of abortion laws, it will not stop some states from finding creative ways of getting around the constitutional implications of the decision. In that case, people will get married anyhow and dare the states to prosecute and fight appeals all the way back to the Supreme Court. By the time that happens, though, I suspect the culture will have changed so much that it will be a moot question.

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Permalink Reply by SteveInCO on March 27, 2013 at 8:30pm

DOMA--or the full faith and credit clause. States may be required to recognize other states' marriages but not be required to perform them themselves.