U.S. Presidential Election Predictions
I'm predicting that the President will get a second term despite slightly losing the general vote, all due to America's wacky Electoral College system. In other words, the reverse of the Bush/Gore election.
Maybe this will be the impetus to get rid of the wacky Electoral College thing.
What's your prediction?
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Unseen on -
I just heard a public radio interview with a political economist (WTF is that?). Anyway, he said that his research has shown that most polls ask the wrong question: "If the election were held today, whom would you vote for?" He said that a far better question turns out to be "Who do you think will win the upcoming election?" Why? Because most voters have heard from friends, relatives, and neighbors who they will vote for. While a voter may plan on voting for candidate A, s/he may be getting the impression that he is in the minority. This question proves to be a far better predictor of who will win, and so far it's Obama by quite a good margin.
If he's right, Obama should win the popular vote by a respectable margin. I think a win in the electoral college is almost a foregone conclusion right now.
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Permalink Reply by BryanPaul on -
it's a shame it won't happen but I'd like to see Gary Johnson get a good chunk of the votes, even though he likely can't win. If he gets enough maybe they will realize people are tired of the same old crap. It looks like a two party race buy going on policy, it's the same party on both sides.
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Permalink Reply by Doug Reardon on -
I live in Alabama where it's about 65% republican (even among the Blacks, go figure) and 30% democratic. Making my vote another spitting into the wind action. I could vote for Jill Stein who is closest to my position, but I'll probably vote for Obama just to let the rethuglicans know there is a sizable portion in the population that do not hold them in high regard.
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Permalink Reply by Unseen on
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Given that Romney is almost totally reviled in Europe, I'm not sure that the company will gain much respect with that label. It might hurt their sales.
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Permalink Reply by Unseen on
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It looks like my original prediction is coming true: Obama loses the general vote but wins in The Electoral College. The Republican pundits on CNN are saying that the handwriting is on the wall for the GOP. It can no longer depend on selling points that primarily appeal to older white people.
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Permalink Reply by Gallup's Mirror on -
California will probably tip the balance of the popular vote to Obama. They've only reported 9% of the tally as I write this.
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Permalink Reply by James Cox on -
The next many days should be interesting. The GOP pundits should be offering their opinions to deaf ears, and theists should start looking for the next party to crap on!
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