I'm predicting that the President will get a second term despite slightly losing the general vote, all due to America's wacky Electoral College system. In other words, the reverse of the Bush/Gore election.
Maybe this will be the impetus to get rid of the wacky Electoral College thing.
What's your prediction?
Obama win likely, but not in the bag. Looking into the future though, 2016 and further on it looks increasingly democratic for a few different reasons. Mostly having nothing to do with actual politics.
Since the country is so close to 50/50, these marginal changes will make the big difference going forward. I don't see a whole lot pushing the other direction.
What about the gender gap? Do you think that will continue to grow?
Speaking for myself, I feel that as long as there are wacko Republicans spouting nonsense about abortion and rape, the gender gap will be a huge problem for them, and since most of the more mainstream Republicans (about 95% of them male) want to dictate to women when, where, and how they can get an abortion if they want it, women will find it hard to support even so-called "moderate" Republicans.
Regarding your point 3., older people who have traditionally voted Republican will be very sensitive to changes in Social Security by reducing benefits or requiring a means test.
The GOP will have to change its ways. This is probably the last election where they stand a ghost of a chance of winning the Presidency with the sorts of policies Romney/Ryan are talking about,
Had a lively discussion with a republican friend and he says Marco Rubio will be the candidate in 2016, thus reversing the Latino/Hispanic trend. I would have to agree with him if that was the case.
Having voted last week, I am so over this election. Somebody flip a coin and tell me who wins tomorrow.
P.S. If Ohio is close enough, the Ohio absentee votes won't even get fully counted until Nov. 16th. So there is a fair possibility we won't even know who the president will be until then.
Black people voted for Obama because they liked his policies and he is black.
Marco Rubio will get some Hispanic votes because he's Hispanic, but most Hispanics won't be drawn to Republicanism because of the values of the Republican party are still pretty much aligned with old white men and Protestant fundamentalists.
Unless it changes its stances on issues Hispanics care about (immigration, helping the poor), the GOP is doomed.
I just heard a public radio interview with a political economist (WTF is that?). Anyway, he said that his research has shown that most polls ask the wrong question: "If the election were held today, whom would you vote for?" He said that a far better question turns out to be "Who do you think will win the upcoming election?" Why? Because most voters have heard from friends, relatives, and neighbors who they will vote for. While a voter may plan on voting for candidate A, s/he may be getting the impression that he is in the minority. This question proves to be a far better predictor of who will win, and so far it's Obama by quite a good margin.
If he's right, Obama should win the popular vote by a respectable margin. I think a win in the electoral college is almost a foregone conclusion right now.
it's a shame it won't happen but I'd like to see Gary Johnson get a good chunk of the votes, even though he likely can't win. If he gets enough maybe they will realize people are tired of the same old crap. It looks like a two party race buy going on policy, it's the same party on both sides.
I live in Alabama where it's about 65% republican (even among the Blacks, go figure) and 30% democratic. Making my vote another spitting into the wind action. I could vote for Jill Stein who is closest to my position, but I'll probably vote for Obama just to let the rethuglicans know there is a sizable portion in the population that do not hold them in high regard.
Given that Romney is almost totally reviled in Europe, I'm not sure that the company will gain much respect with that label. It might hurt their sales.
This could be a picture for the ages, 1.5 to 3....