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Permalink Reply by Bob MacVay on November 7, 2012 at 9:32am

It amazes me how Romney and the GOP in general can't relate to how their prayers for an election victory went unanswered. It didn't seem to deter him though, as he offered his prayers for the Democrates in his "losers" speech.Do you think any of the GOP will attempt to play down the religious banter in 2016?   

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Permalink Reply by Arcus on November 7, 2012 at 10:24am

Why would they? I would guesstimate that at least 90% of the people who vote are religious and maybe 50% of those deeply religious. There's also plenty of religion among minorities and women, which means that there's substantial gain to be party most closely aligned with religious values.

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Permalink Reply by Strega on November 7, 2012 at 11:45am

@Arcus  I think the religious arena in the USA has been sub-sectioned so much, that its hard to align yourself to one without alienating the rest.  The Mormon declaration of affiliation didn't help, there.  It would be good to have neither party affiliated with any religion.  That would be a giant leap for mankind in the USA. 

Just imagine if you were voting for real opinions on current affairs and the vision for hope in this life, rather than a fuzzy promise of joy in the next.  That would indeed be progress.

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Permalink Reply by Kir Komrik on November 7, 2012 at 12:12pm

Hey Strega nice! - kk

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Permalink Reply by Gallup's Mirror on November 7, 2012 at 12:01pm

The number of 'religiously unaffiliated' Americans is increasing rapidly, up almost 25% in the last five years alone. It's about 1 in 5 overall, but among adults under 30, it's about 1 in 3. So there's a growing disadvantage to a strong association with religion as well.

Source: Pew Research Center

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Permalink Reply by Arcus on November 7, 2012 at 12:20pm

I specifically said "voters". Turnout among those under 30 is usually below 50%, and thus constitute less than 10% of all votes cast, and these have been leaning quite democratic anyway the last 20 years. 

Religiously unaffiliated is not the same as non-religious. Atheist and agnostics constitute less than 6%, and I'm fairly sure they are a lock for the Democrats and considered as not worth it by the Republicans. I can understand their point when 94% are religious to some extent..

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Permalink Reply by Gallup's Mirror on November 7, 2012 at 4:20pm

We are, after all, talking about the future. Today's 'under 30' voter is tomorrow's 'over 30' voter.

Besides, even assuming your guess is correct, and 'under 30' voters comprise 'less than 10%' of all voters, that's not exactly an insignificant number. Just four presidential elections since 1940 were decided by more than 10%. Obama won by 2.3% yesterday, the latest of the last seven consecutive presidential elections that were decided by single-digit margins.

How is 'religiously unaffiliated' different than 'non-religious' in any way that makes a substantial difference to the GOP? Look at Mitt Romney's struggle to appeal to evangelical Christians, who were blacklisting Mormons as cultists as recently as last week. How could the GOP possibly select a religious candidate that appeals to that base and the 'religiously unaffiliated' alike?

No matter what we call it-- atheism, agnosticism, unaffiliated, non-religious-- the point is that the ranks of the 'not-with-a-proper-religion' are growing, and that shrinks the number of future voters who will identify strongly with an overtly Christian-oriented GOP candidate. That suits me just fine.

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Permalink Reply by Arcus on November 7, 2012 at 4:59pm

Tomorrow's voters don't count today. It'll be at least 20 years until they start making an impact, the current voting bloc de rigeur is the fuck ya'll, I got mine boomers.  

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Permalink Reply by Unseen on November 7, 2012 at 5:44pm

So, human nature is going to change in the future. 

Interesting.

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Permalink Reply by James Cox on November 7, 2012 at 7:04pm

No just the excess divergence from atheist sensibilities.

Permalink Reply by Gallup's Mirror on November 7, 2012 at 7:07pm

Here's an interesting clip from an article in the Washington Post.

"[Democratic] party strategists noted that people younger than 30 made up a larger share of the electorate than those 65 and older, further enhancing what they see as a generational shift in their direction."

So the 'under 30' population is not only democratic-leaning, it's also becoming less religious, and voting in greater numbers than before.

Permalink Reply by Gallup's Mirror on November 7, 2012 at 6:42pm

@Arcus

We are talking about the future of the GOP and 'under 30' voters. 

It's not going to take 20 years for the GOP's future to arrive. The 'under 30' voters already make an impact in numbers that exceed the victory margins of the last seven presidential elections.

Moreover, in four years, during the 2016 presidential election, 33% of today's 'under 30' voters will be 'over 30' voters. In eight years, it'll be 66%. Meanwhile, if the trend of the last 5 years continues, the new 'under 30' voting generations will become progressively less religious.

I find that an encouraging thought. Don't you?

@Unseen

If by 'human nature' in this context you really mean 'the statistical religious characteristics of American voters' then yes, you're probably right.

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