I've said elsewhere that this was probably the last election where the Republicans stood a real chance of gaining the American Presidency with a program that mainly appeals to prosperous suburban whites and holds little appeal to most women and almost no appeal at all to racial minorities. 

If the GOP is to survive, what do you think it would have to look like? What could it possibly look like?

Tags: GOP, Republicans

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Sometimes the most interesting posts are the ones which show up in full in my email box but are subsequently deleted.

Since this person withdrew this comment, I won't tell you its author, but it's fodder for discussion, so here is a deleted post:

I am a Libertarian atheist and not an American so I don't vote. If I had voted I would have voted for Romney, seeing the disaster that Obama did with his first term.

I agree that the Republican party must leave the Evangelical Right, but the media is greatly to blame in this election outcome. I mean, come on: Akin said something incredibly stupid and was disowned by the major Republican voices including Romney... but of course, the media hung on to that. And, of course, there is Sandy. I wonder, if Sandy hadn't happened, who would have been president (Romney lost Florida by 50k votes, less than 1%, and Ohio by 100k).

On a brighter outlook, the great thing about his reelection is that Obama won't be able to blame his predecessor for his failures any more... that grows old, don't you think? Imagine if unemployment continues above 8% for another year... what will they invent?

My prediction: in 2014, after a lackluster 2 years of Obama, the Republicans will take back the Senate... and among other things, propose a replacement of Obamacare that doesn't destroy the private healthcare and convert it into the Canadian/UK one. (And please, don't come to me saying how nice those two are. I lived in the UK and the NHS is absolutely appalling... and you can measure the greatness of the Canadian system by all those Americans crossing the border to get treatment there... not)).

I see the post in question.

He probably did what I do (too often, I'm afraid). I'll post something, see a typo or something, or else think of a better way of express myself. I'll then delete the post, work on it, and then post it again. However, I tend to do that more frequently with blog posts than forum posts, because the 15 minute edit option isn't there for blog posts.

Ah yeah, that must have been what it was.

So far, Republican Presidents have been elected primarily by old white men - every year, there are fewer old white men.

The next Republican Presidential ticket will have an Hispanic Vice-Presidential Candidate, as that is the fastest-growing segment of America's population. As they learned in the last weeks of the campaign, they also need to jettison the lead anchor that is the RR Tea Party. Any movement to "Take Back America" is doomed - I once saw an interview with Andy Griffith, who confided that the world of "Mayberry" was long gone, even before the TV series was made - it's gone, we move forward or we get left behind - get used to it!

So far, Republican Presidents have been elected primarily by old white men - every year, there are fewer old white men.

But that's not true! Every year there are more old men!

Since 1950, the United States has been in the midst of a profound demographic change: rapid population aging, a phenomenon that is replacing the earlier “young” age-sex structure with that of an older population. (source, pg 13)

There are more old men, but fewer old WHITE men!

The fastest growing demographic are those over 65, with an 80% increase in 2025 compared to today.

I wanted to mention one of the interesting demographic effects that will be increasing over the next 20 years, essentially starting this year.

The last 40 years has seen the greatest extension of human lifespan in all of human history. Though that extension will continue, we have plateaued for the last few years to around a lifespan of 75 years for males and 80 years for females.in the U.S.

At this stage in time, that effectively means that for the past 10 years, I have attended about 2-3 funerals per year, and going forward, at least until we make some dramatic breakthroughs in lifespan, I should be attending 4-6 in the next year, and by 2020 likely more than one a month. We all know people who have escaped what used to be certain death from various cancers and other ailments, but eventually, those folks will not be able to avoid the inevitable companion to taxes. 

In regards to this conversation, it means that Republicans/Conservatives are going to be dropping like flies. As Arcus mentioned, the over 65's will be growing, I don't have a reference for this, but I think a big voting block, especially in Florida, is over 75. On another thread I mentioned that Florida will likely lose it's status as a swing state by the next presidential election. It will not regain that status for a very long time.

As an interesting side note, a researcher named Aubrey de Grey says that the worlds first 150 year old person has already been born, and that the worlds first 1000 year old person is only 10 years behind him/her. What do you think that will do to elections?



Our population is ageing, which according to some means it will be becoming more conservative. However, as a "boomer," I know that my generation grew up with the antiwar and civil rights movements, rock 'n' roll, rampant marijuana use, black power, feminism, and the so-called sexual revolution.

While I'm sure most boomers have softened their stances on some of these issues somewhat, the Republicans will not be able to count on us as a solid conservative voting block. We are not about to do a total "flip" from liberal to conservatism.

Romney et al were so convinced they were going to win, Romney hadn't even written a concession speech, and he had already created a transitional website:

Another vote for "Republicans should ditch the stupid social issues:" 


I do think they'd be far more effective if they followed his advice.


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