I've said elsewhere that this was probably the last election where the Republicans stood a real chance of gaining the American Presidency with a program that mainly appeals to prosperous suburban whites and holds little appeal to most women and almost no appeal at all to racial minorities.
If the GOP is to survive, what do you think it would have to look like? What could it possibly look like?
I didn't give the estimate. The CBO did. I just referenced it here.
The CBO projects budgetary and economic futures based on existing laws. This is a benchmark for Congress to weigh the effects of proposed legislation. If Congress changes the law (as they do frequently) then the outcome will differ from CBO projections. That is, if Congress votes to change taxes or spending, or expand or contract a given program, then any CBO forecast (absent a crystal ball) will be wrong. This is the reason the CBO publishes so many updates: not to correct errors of math or methodology, but to adjust for changes in the rules.
The CBO also releases regular assessments of its past accuracy based on comparisons between forecasts and actual results. It uses as a comparison a 'Blue Chip consensus' which is the average of about 50 forecasters in the private sector. The accuracy of CBO and Blue Chip projections have been comparable across the board since 1980 in terms of GDP, price index, wages and salaries, growth rates, inflation, and in almost every other category. Since 1980, the CBO has been accurate to within 0.1% to 2% on these baseline indexes, and usually tended to overestimate costs, based on projections of 5 years. Check the link and see for yourself.
ObamaCare, as it was passed, is paid for. But given enough power, the Republicans could still cripple it, say, by killing the individual coverage mandate and thus eliminating much of the revenues that pay for it. Then they'll start the usual caterwauling that the Democrats and CBO underestimated the cost. Fortunately, the Republicans don't have that power, so they can't muck around with it for now. The current, funded, fiscally-responsible version of ObamaCare will continue as intended.
"The Republicans will be better off just finding a way to fund it."
If you mean ObamaCare, it's 100% funded already. Not only that, the insurance coverage provisions over 2012–2022 will produce a net deficit reduction of $84 billion.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (page 2, paragraph 2)
This is a good read, if anyone has a couple of minutes and wants to end the evening with a good laugh:
...her successful visit to Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan...
That was the funniest line. Funny in the way tragedy can be funny.
You mean like a busload of lawyers goes over a cliff --
Or an apocalyptical sect committing mass suicide.
Nah the GOP was already dead. Mitt Robme just made it more of a joke.
Question for the questioner - what is your take on why both candidates shied away from mention of Global Warming, other than Romney's one mention, in the first debate, of Obama frittering away the nation's money on "green projects"?
Because overall it's something Americans don't want to think about. More of a problem for the Republican candidate because so many Republicans are global warming doubters, but there wasn't much on the plus side for Obama, either.
I'm fairly sure Republicans will be thinking of changing their nomination process, which forced their candidates to say a lot of things they would have to back off once they got nomination at the GOP Convention. Witness Romney's post convention Etch-A-Sketching away of his claim to be a "severe conservative." I would watch for much more caucusing and much less debating.