Paul Rubin has written an article in WSJ regarding Environmentalism as a type of religion which I find quite interesting. The factors he lists as similarities are pretty dead on:
• There is a holy day—Earth Day.
• There are food taboos.
• There is no prayer, but there are self-sacrificing rituals that are not particularly useful.
• Belief systems are embraced with no logical basis.
• There are sacred structures.
• Skeptics are not merely people unconvinced by the evidence: They are treated as evil sinners.
One could also add:
• Prophet - Al Gore.
• Scripture - The IPCC reports.
However, environmentalism is far from being alone in the specter of issues and causes that people become fundamental about, and many political opinions tend to get stuck because people refuse to change their them - even when faced with overwhelming contradictory evidence. This is not confined to the "right", and possibly afflicts more people on the "left". Scientists routinely refutes diverging opinions with ad hominem argumentation, freezing out those who disagree, withholding resources etc. Economists (sorta one myself) believe their social science is a hard science with evidence based facts proved by complex mathematics. Attempting to critcize a parenting is something I can absolutely forget about since I don't have children myself. Even our hero Einstein refused to accept quantum theory.
What are your opinions on this subject? Can these opinions-turned-fundamentalism be compared to religion?
but there is a chance the consensus is erroneous.
Yes there is, but it is improbable, as I mentioned earlier.
As for the environment, quite a few scientist supported the conjecture of global cooling not more than 35 years ago, and I remember from when I was quite young the apocalyptical headlines of how there wouldn't be an ozone layer when I grew up
These are specific examples, but statistics takes into consideration a sample large enough to be statistically relevant. In math, these are particular realizations of a random variable, whose distribution can nevertheless render them improbable. It's like saying that I threw a die and it landed with the six facing up. However, it is improbable that the six will turn up the next time you throw it. In fact, it's improbable every single time you throw it, even though on a sixth of the times it will turn up. See my point now? Most hypotheses that aren't a consensus are wrong, even though some prove not to be.
I will not devote my life to this consensus though, because there is a chance it may not be correct.
I never asked you to. Neither will I, but I do realize that the consensus represents the most likely theory given the current data.
Yet, unlike the popular science magazines i read as a child (www.illvit.no), the major cause of death is still not skin cancer last I checked..
We did save the ozone layer, but these things were taught as facts in my high school education in the late nineties, and my science education was much more up to date than much of the BS being taught in American schools today. (FYI, my high school natural science teacher had a company producing electricity from the methane emissions of landfills.)
I have ended up with the question: What gives?
So...the claim that 'If we lose the ozone layer the major cause of death will be skin cancer', followed by us not losing the ozone layer means that ... skin cancer not being the #1 cause of death is a problem?
If A, then B. Since not A, not B should not be surprising.
I think I'm misunderstanding you somehow, Arcus. I feel like you're trying to make a point that I am somehow not seeing.
The point was that scientists are not very good predictors of the future. They are the best we have, but they are not 100% correct.
As a child my parents smeared me in with SPF 50 before going outside to play in the sun. It was the right choice for the wrong reasons; the fear of skin cancer caused by the hole in the ozone layer instead of the fear of skin cancer caused by being sun burnt. Pragmatically such a distinction does not matter, intellectually it does.
Ah, I see.
Frankly, it depends on what they are predicting. If a scientist were to predict that there would be a total solar eclipse in Maine in the year 2548, I'd lay good odds of it being accurate. As the system involved gets more complex and the data less certain, the accuracy decreases, which is why things like climate science have large error bars.
The prediction that skin cancer may be the #1 cause of death if the ozone layer had continued to be destroyed may have been accurate. We'll never know, as we stopped destroying the ozone layer and thus the X part of 'If X, then Y' was negated. If someone predicts "If X happens, then Y will happen" and people prevent X from happening, it is not a condemnation of the prediction that Y does not happen.
Plus, while scientists tend to add qualifiers to their predictions to express the uncertainty in them, such as 'given current conditions' or 'barring new evidence', it does not help matter when the media takes a scientist stating "If X and Y continue as their current rates, and Q occurs, then Z might happen" and put out a headline stating "Scientists claim Z inevitable!!"
I didn't start reading complex text and moving on to science magazines until i was 11-12, so these studies were published in the early nineties, after the CFC ban.
I think their models back then were inaccurate...
Take the example of Intelligent Design.
It's not really researched or even considered outside of the U.S., the average European have probably not even heard about it, but everyone on this board seem to think it is somehow important enough to discuss because it's a hot topic in one country. The fact that it is discussed here is more a part of the problem than the solution - idiocy can't be combatted with logic and reason, and should be ignored until it goes away.
It is not corruption per se, but it is an example of how something which is clearly wrong ends up on the agenda, taking focus and resources away from real knowledge development, only because some people in one (important) country talks about it and therefore give it creedence.
As for scientific consensus, the field of economics is built upon the assumption of people always making rational choices. Economists hate when this assumption is being tested because it's often found not to hold. Yet modern society is based upon these models.