Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Radu Andreiu on February 25, 2011 at 12:46pm

See below (the reply to Irina)!

You can't determine if there will be a paradigm shift if you're not a scientist, and most theories that are rejected by most people are wrong. Therefore, any hypothesis for which there is no consensus is probably wrong, if other data is not available. For further discussions on this exact issue, please go on the other thread.

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Permalink Reply by T A A on February 25, 2011 at 9:12pm

Pure science is advanced by renegades (subjective interpretation),  but it becomes a strong theory to assess the worlds realities only when a quality consensus is achieved. These are two separate processes.

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Permalink Reply by Radu Andreiu on February 25, 2011 at 12:44pm

Oh not the "science is not done by consensus" non-sense again. I wrote about this numerous times and what I always said is that science is not done by consensus for scientists, but the consensus is statistically demonstrable the best way of determining the probably right theory if we don't have the data and the capabilities to interpret it ourselves. That's really important and you could argue it on the discussion I linked in the previous answer. So please, if you don't agree that there is a consensus, but merely about its importance, them go on the other thread so we can discuss this issue.

 

EDIT:

And do you genuinely believe that a conspiracy of this magnitude could happen? I mean, when there is a consensus in science, there are academies, institutes and scientists all over the world who have to be claiming something. What political interest could determine all of the most respectable academies of science to issue phony statements?

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Permalink Reply by Arcus on February 25, 2011 at 1:11pm

Apologies if I ruffled your feathers. I liked the statement because science shold be driven forth by the best available evidence/theory, even if it goes against the established consensus. I read an article the other day where the LHC researcher Nicholas Hadley said about the Higgs Boson "If we don't see it (within a couple years), we will be very excited, because it means that there's something very brand-new." If I am not mistaken, there's a pretty good consensus surrounding the existence of the Higgs Boson, but there is a chance the consensus is erroneous.

As for the environment, quite a few scientist supported the conjecture of global cooling not more than 35 years ago, and I remember from when I was quite young the apocalyptical headlines of how there wouldn't be an ozone layer when I grew up. The consensus today is that we are experiencing man made global warming, and I do not disagree. I will not devote my life to this consensus though, because there is a chance it may not be correct.

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Permalink Reply by Arcus on February 25, 2011 at 1:24pm

No disagreement.

I am just fearful that if a better theory emerges that it won't be discounted due to the too many people being too entrenched.

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Permalink Reply by Radu Andreiu on February 25, 2011 at 1:28pm

Scientists should accept claims only on evidence, and we should accept their acceptance, wouldn't you agree? If that's the case, if a better theory emerges, scientists will accept it and we'll accept it too. That's all I'm trying to say with this consensus thing.

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Permalink Reply by Radu Andreiu on February 25, 2011 at 1:26pm

Yes, and how we, non-scientists, determine that is by looking at the consensus, as we can't really analyze the evidence ourselves. I thing Arcus would agree with the last part, but it seems the consensus is not enough for him to accept a claim, even though I contend it is mathematically the best way to look at scientific theories that we can't fully comprehend.

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Permalink Reply by Arcus on February 25, 2011 at 1:55pm

No need make assumptions about my opinions - we are in agreement.

I just find it interesting that some fellow atheists who do not believe in eternal truths in religion seem to have the complete opposite approach when it comes to science. Scientific consensus represents the best available theory, and (as non-scientists) we must follow it, but it's not necessarily the right theory.

To tie it back to the theme of my OP, why do you think some people refuse to change their opinion even when they are proven erroneous? And isn't it worse when people who embrace science as the best means of explaning existence do it as opposed to people who use a divine being?

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Permalink Reply by Radu Andreiu on February 25, 2011 at 2:23pm

People are biased when it comes to their beliefs. People find it hard to analyze things and prefer clinging on to their prejudgments. I think that's more or less human nature. However, understanding how that way of thinking is faulty can lead people to be more vigilant and be more skeptical about what they already believe.

I, for example, know that, if what I believe to be true is also what I want to be true, I should analyze the matter closer because people are way more likely to believe what they want. That being said, fortunate circumstances sometimes occur and the truth corresponds with our desires.

It's a hard matter really, but I think it's manageable if we understand that we should be malleable enough to change our beliefs if necessary. I view it as a system in which there is a transitory period between beliefs, so we don't change our minds about certain fundamental beliefs so easily. But if we let data come in (i.e. we are open minded), then the good data will sway us to change our beliefs, while the bad data won't. It's also a matter of understanding to differentiate between good and bad data and that's a skill you have to learn all your life because of the complexity of the data available. Hopefully we can become wiser every passing day and see thing from different and ideally better positions.

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Permalink Reply by Irina Uriupina on February 25, 2011 at 2:39pm

That's true. People are selective in perceiving new information: we have a tendency to overlook data that comes in conflict with our current beliefs and easily notice one that confirms them. It's a psychological fact.

So yeah, it's not easy, but we need to try and challenge our beliefs from time to time checking on conflicting information and be ready to be proven wrong.

Permalink Reply by Radu Andreiu on February 25, 2011 at 1:21pm

but there is a chance the consensus is erroneous.

Yes there is, but it is improbable, as I mentioned earlier.

 

As for the environment, quite a few scientist supported the conjecture of global cooling not more than 35 years ago, and I remember from when I was quite young the apocalyptical headlines of how there wouldn't be an ozone layer when I grew up 

These are specific examples, but statistics takes into consideration a sample large enough to be statistically relevant. In math, these are particular realizations of a random variable, whose distribution can nevertheless render them improbable. It's like saying that I threw a die and it landed with the six facing up. However, it is improbable that the six will turn up the next time you throw it. In fact, it's improbable every single time you throw it, even though on a sixth of the times it will turn up. See my point now? Most hypotheses that aren't a consensus are wrong, even though some prove not to be.

 

I will not devote my life to this consensus though, because there is a chance it may not be correct. 

I never asked you to. Neither will I, but I do realize that the consensus represents the most likely theory given the current data.

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Permalink Reply by Dave G on February 25, 2011 at 1:44pm

The ozone layer warnings are actually a good example of how humanity can affect the global climate. If we had not stopped the massive use of chloroflurocarbons and thus stopped the ongoing depletion of the ozone layer it might well have been the case that it would be gone by now.

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