Bad news regarding the American presidential election

1. Trump has more minority support than you might suppose (read here)

American minorities tend to be Christian and unemployed and they see the GOP as more family-oriented, more supportive of Christianity, and in the case of Trump probably more able to improve their job situation. 

2. Trump will most likely be the GOP candidate (read here)

It's simply becoming obvious that Trump will be the GOP's entry in the 2016 presidential race.

3. A Bernie Sanders candidacy would likely result in a GOP win, so they are laying off him and concentrating on helping him get Hillary out of the way (read here and here)

Basically, the GOP strategy is to try to get Clinton out of the way in order to be able to run against the avowed socialist Bernie Sanders. Socialism in the US is down there with pedophilia and atheism in terms of disregard. 

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Feel the Bern, baby!

The big news on the GOP side, besides Trump losing to Cruz, is that Trump and Rubio are virtually tied.

Trump, who has been stingy with money on advertising, will now start ramping up his attacks on Rubio. Why not Cruz at this time? Cruz has little appeal apart from areas with heavy Christian fundamentalism. Rubio is the establishment opposition. For a while anyway, Rubio will be Trump's major target.

Also, watch Clinton start moving to the left to co-opt as much of Sanders' support as she can.

Yeah I was thinking (once the fifteen minutes were up) that I should have highlighted that Trump very nearly came in third instead of second, but I decided to let it rest with just one "news report" post.

Cruz is absolutely hated by the GOP establishment (a/k/a, to the GOP non-establishment, as "those RINOs") in spite of at least being an officeholder with some political experience, unlike Trump. Within the Republican/conservative pundit community the belief is that the establishment would FAR rather have Trump than Cruz and they are warming up to the idea of using Trump as a way to beat up on Cruz.  That's how much the GOP establishment hates Cruz.

I think Trump will actually go after Cruz about as much as Rubio, because Cruz is capable of cutting into Trump's support and drawing people away from him, whereas Rubio really can't.  The biggest complaint I hear about Rubio from the conservative pundits is his immigration stance, but to them that's enough to totally disqualify him.

Over on the D side, Clinton has got to be getting worried, and yes, I expect her to tack Left, while being careful not to go so far Left it comes back to haunt her when she starts seeking independent votes in the general election.

Seems my comment got lost in HTML land.  But it showed up just long enough for me to highlight and copy it, and paste it in here.  So here's another attempt.

Yeah I was thinking (once the fifteen minutes are up) that I should have highlighted that Trump very nearly came in third instead of second, but I decided to satisfy myself with just one "news report" post.

Cruz is absolutely hated by the GOP establishment (a/k/a, to the GOP non-establishment, as "those RINOs") in spite of at least being an officeholder with some political experience, unlike Trump. Within the Republican/conservative pundit community the belief is that the establishment would FAR rather have Trump than Cruz and they are warming up to the idea of using Trump as a way to beat up on Cruz.  That's how much the GOP establishment hates Cruz.

I think Trump will actually go after Cruz about as much as Rubio, because Cruz is capable of cutting into Trump's support (i.e., everyone pissed off at the "RINOs") and drawing people away from him, whereas Rubio really can't.  The biggest complaint I hear about Rubio from the conservative pundits is his immigration stance, but to them that's enough to totally disqualify him.

As for Clinton/Sanders, I expect Clinton is REALLY worried now.  So she'll tack Left to try to shore up her base, but she'll be reluctant to do so by too much, lest she give independents reasons not to vote for her in the general election.

Like I said, Rubio will be Trump's big target "for a while." Ultimately, he'll need to get Cruz out of the way. He's so far ahead of Cruz in New Hampshire that he needn't pay too much attention to him.

Even in this part of the world - Ireland - we get a sense of the disdain that "wacko bird" Cruz is held in by the Senate. Maybe this makes him more popular to the electorate? Could it be that this makes him more anti-establishment in their eyes than Trump does?

Yes - A week is a long time in politics and this is from 9 weeks ago.

Cruz is hated by his colleagues (congressman/senators) but they don't really constitute 'the establishment'.  'The establishment' is the business behind the scenes, and that business is getting bills passed that make donors money.  Goldman Sachs jumped from the Bush to Rubio campaign in the last quarter of 2015, but they also hedged their bets with Cruz - a strong indicator that he's a viable 'establishment candidate'.  A candidate does not become anti-establishment until their policies result in donor support drying up.

Hillary can move as far left as she likes but that will only alienate her base without garnering her the youth vote that is swelling for Bernie.  Her best bet would be to try to split that vote by getting young women on her side.  A portion already are - those who aren't will likely find it difficult to take Hillary as being sincere if she presses women's issues.

Bernie fell behind in several caucuses because his young supporters, many becoming politically active for the first time just this campaign, weren't as familiar with the caucus process as Hillary's more seasoned supporters.  That is likely to be far less of an issue in primary votes so expect Bernie to fare better in states that have primary elections rather than caucuses.  Bernie also needs to get his message moving faster with young African Americans so I hope he taps the influence of Killer Mike in that arena.

Hillary can move as far left as she likes but that will only alienate her base without garnering her the youth vote that is swelling for Bernie.

Nah. I think even her "base" likes to hear leftist populist rhetoric. Rather, she'll alienate a lot of her PAC and deep pockets individual donors.

I think her PAC and big donors will cut her plenty of slack for what she says on the soap box.  She's found a lot of 'conservative-left' voter support by saying Bernie goes too far, is too much of an idealist, will cause more problems than he'll solve.  Those voters don't want anyone messing with Obamacare, breaking up banks, or legalizing weed.

Please don't mess with the banks...who else will I rob?  That's where they keep the money you know.

:D

Not anymore.

:D

It looks like Cruz may lock the right wing evangelicals that Trump needs.

Cruz might be scarier than Trump.  Trump believes in himself, which is arguably supportable as far as reality goes at least.

Cruz believes we need the Christian version of Sharia Law, and in supernatural critters, etc...which is not supportable in reality.

On the other hand, the fat part of the US bell curve is not evangelical...and, Cruz could not win the nation as a whole.

So, that gives a Dem win.

A Saunders/Cruz national election would at least be polarizing if nothing else....godless commies vs bible thumping madmen,

Hillary seems the Dem no brainer though, and, qualification-wise, she would seem the most qualified...and we'd get to see Bill as the first husband, and who Hill gets under HER desk, etc.

As the national mood does seem to be for anything BUT the "establishment", The Hill vs Saunders question hinges on the precise mix of voter sentiment.

Too much rejection of politicians as a species means we get people who are less like politicians, or at least are perceived that way.

Those who are not politicians, historically, don't get much support form the politicians in office when they arrive...as they are not part of the machinery.  (No matter how, or bad, their ideas are, they will have a hard time getting their programs initiated)

Rubio is also a bit whacky in the deity department, and should attract/terrify ~ the same crowd as Cruz.

So, we have Trump running as a conservative, which attracts evangelicals typically, and as a rich white guy, ditto, but who they almost definitely know is not exactly a saint.  He plays lip service to the pious, while bragging about his sins.

That means though that the conservatives will have to vote for Trump, or, a Dem...if he is the nomination...and, I think they would.

The right edge of the Dems can swing to the Big T too, so, that theoretically gives him almost 1/2 the voters.

(~ 1/3 the country is right wing whackos + ~ 1/4 - 1/5 of the country who are historically middle of the roaders)

If they all showed up, he'd probably win.

If they stay home because they can't bring themselves to vote for the ass hat OR a Dem...he'd lose.

:D

So, I hate to say it, but I'd rather have Trump than Cruz or Rubio...but, really, I'm not excited about either side's offerings.

The people who are qualified on the Repub side like Bush, seem to be invisible so far....a real campaign failure on their part.

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